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By DONNA L. LILLIAN

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The probability of surviving 365 days (one year) is the probability of surviving the 365th day having already survived the previous 364 days. Clearly one must have survived this day before one can have the possibility to survive the next day. Survival into day 365 is therefore conditional on surviving the whole of day 364. Similarly, the conditional probability of surviving for 364 days is the probability of surviving the 364th day having already survived for 363 days. This argument clearly continues for each preceding day of the one year.

However, these do not give a concise means of assessing follow-up maturity. Simple summaries, which have been suggested for this purpose, include the median follow-up time of those individuals still alive, together with the minimum and maximum follow-up times of these individuals. 2 there are 12 surviving from the 24 patients with Dukes’ C colorectal cancer of McIllmurray and Turkie (1987), with corresponding ordered censored survival times of 3+, 12+, 15+, 16+, 18+, 18+, 22+, 28+, 28+, 28+, 30+ and 33+ months.

2. 10) that SEGr S 12 = 0 6522 4 2 + 23 23 − 4 19 19 − 2 = 0 6522 0 009153 + 0 006192 1/2 1/2 = 0 6522 × 0 12387 = 0 0808 We note here that, although n0 = 24 patients were recruited to this study, one of these is censored at T + = 3+ months before any death occurs. Consequently the number at risk, before any death, is reduced to n0 − 1 = 23, which is the figure used in the above calculation. The 95% CI for S(12), using the SE estimated by SE Gr S 12 , is therefore from 0 6522 − 1 96 × 0 0808 = 0 4938 to 0 6522 + 1 96 × 0 0808 = 0 8106.

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