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A 2 to 1 shot would be said to have a 33 per cent chance of success because the bookmakers are basically saying that in every three races a 2 to 1 shot will win one race and lose two. The betting market probabilities have then been compared to the actual probability of a win. These ‘actual probabilities of a win’ are simply the proportion of winners recorded in all flat races run in Great Britain and Ireland over the last decade for horses at different betting odds. This gives a sample of over 700,000 runners, which allows for robust comparisons to be made.

9 per cent. 5 for those horses that recorded a win on their third from last start. The system that I described earlier didn’t take heed of this fact because it weighted the finishing position recorded for a horse’s last and second from last start as being of equal importance. Clearly the predictive power of past form decays with time. 3 that second placing were more predictive of a win next time out than any other finishing position, including previous wins. This applies to whether the finishing position was recorded for the horses last, second or third from last runs.

Employing this rule gives a more select list of trainers to follow and actually increases the rate of return from 50 to 56 per cent. 4 I have repeated the above analysis for jump races, and again there is a group of trainers that appear to be worth following when employing claiming jockeys. 4: Jump trainers’ record employing 3lb and 5lb claiming jockeys. 73 51 PROFITABLE BETTING SYSTEMS I did reanalyse the results for flat and jump races to look at handicap and nonhandicaps. This didn’t seem to make much difference.

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