By Jan Teorell
What are the determinants of democratization? Do the standards that flow international locations towards democracy additionally support them chorus from backsliding towards autocracy? This e-book makes an attempt to reply to those questions via a mixture of a statistical research of social, fiscal, and foreign determinants of regime switch in a hundred sixty five international locations world wide in 1972-2006, and case research paintings on 9 episodes of democratization happening in Argentina, Bolivia, Hungary, Nepal, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay. The findings recommend that democracy is promoted through long term structural forces similar to monetary prosperity, but additionally via peaceable renowned uprisings and the institutional setup of authoritarian regimes. within the short-run, in spite of the fact that, elite actors could play a key position, fairly throughout the value of intra-regime splits. Jan Teorell argues that those effects have vital repercussions either for present theories of democratization and for the overseas community's attempt in constructing guidelines for democracy promoting.
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Additional info for Determinants of Democratization: Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972-2006
55). In essence, this means that the process of transition itself determines its outcome. , Karl 1990; Karl and Schmitter 1991; Shin 1994). 3 The strategic approach to explaining democratization has had an enormous impact, both within and outside the scholarly community. Bringing actors and agency to the analytical fore was a substantial contribution at a point in time when the structural approach was perceived as presenting a deterministic stranglehold on the prospects for democratization, not least for real-life pro-democratic forces in 3 Considering the centrality of elite actors and strategic decision making in this approach to explaining democratization, it is no surprise that some of its insights have been amenable to game-theoretic interpretations (Przeworski 1991; Gates and Humes 1997, chap.
There is even ample evidence that these predictions are not quite as robustly borne out as expected (Perotti 1996; Gradstein and Milanovic 2004; Mulligan et al. 2004; Ross 2006). With respect to assumptions, there have been far fewer, if any, efforts toward empirical corroboration. The most crucial assumptions in the economic approach to democratization are the ones concerning information and preference formation. The world of Acemoglu and Robinson’s (2006) model is populated by individuals that are fully informed: of the preferences of all other individuals, of the (assumed) redistributive consequences of dictatorship and democracy, of the costs of repression, of the share of society’s economic resources that would be destroyed by a revolution, and so on.
If one wants to trace a causal mechanism able to explain why a certain determinant appears to exert an effect in a multiple regression model, what kind of cases should be selected? Despite the general move toward integrating statistical and case study methods in political science, there is surprisingly little methodological advice given on this in the literature. Evan Lieberman (2005) aptly summarizes the conventional wisdom on the subject: select a case “on the regression line” if you want to trace the causal mechanism underlying the statistical relationship in question; select a case “far from the regression line” if you want to explore what other, unaccounted for sources of variation might add to your understanding of the phenomena under study.