By Nancy Cartwright, Jeremy Hardie
Evidence-Based Policy specializes in exhibiting policymakers easy methods to successfully use facts. It additionally explains what different types of details are most crucial for making trustworthy coverage, and provides classes on easy methods to organise that information.
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Additional info for Evidence-Based Policy: A Practical Guide to Doing It Better
There are two big advantages to taking seriously the connection between argument and warrant and to sketching argument pyramids like this. First, it helps you put order into your reasons. Second, it helps you assess the degree of confidence you should have in your conclusion. Ideally every box is filled in and every box stands on others and those on others until eventually all are rooted in the ground. Then you can have a high degree of confidence in your conclusion. If lots of boxes are hanging in the air and there are lots of blank boxes as well, your degree of confidence should be low.
There may be some causal principles that hold everywhere; perhaps the law of gravitational attraction, that two masses attract each other with a force GMm/r2, is an example. But this is not typical in the sciences and especially not in the medical and social sciences. In these areas, principles can vary from one situation to another; they can be more or less general; and more or less deep. In PART II we shall be reminded how the fact that causal principles can differ from locale to locale means that you cannot read off that a ( 24 ) Getting Started: From “It Worked There” to “It Will Work Here” policy will work here from even very solid evidence that it worked somewhere else, or even in a number of somewhere elses.
10 Process tracing This method confirms the existence of a causal connection between start and finish by confirming, one-by-one, a series of smaller causal steps in between. For the method to work, the steps in between must either be of a kind that are already well established or else be ones that can be established on the spot. Sometimes these intermediate steps are not established by direct observation but rather, for instance, by registering side effects that would be produced just in case the effect in question occurred, or by looking for effects of that effect.